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The Science of Ultra-Processed Food

A 10% increase in the proportion of ultra-processed foods leads to [1][2]:

12% increase in associated cancer risk [3].
21% increase in the risk of depressive symptoms [4].
12% increase in cardiovascular disease risk [5].
15% increase in type 2 diabetes risk [6].
11% increase in the risk of being overweight [7].

"Real food is what the world ate for millennia without risk of long-term disease" (Robert Lusting)

The consumption of ultra-processed food is linked to many diseases, including cancer, depression, cardiovascular disease [3][4][5], and Non-communicable diseases like metabolic syndrome, obesity, and diabetes [6][7]. Diets relying on highly processed foods are associated with exposure to industrialized preservatives and pesticides [8].

Processed food is defined by seven engineering criteria [9]:

Mass produced
Consistent batch to batch
Consistent country to country
Uses specialized ingredients from specialized companies
Consists of pre-frozen macronutrients
Stays emulsified
Has long shelf or freezer life

The degree of food processing is provided by the NOVA classification system [12], a manual curation which defines four discrete categories:

Unprocessed or minimally-processed (NOVA1): Fruits, vegetables, grains, legumes, meat, fish, and milk.
Processed culinary ingredients (NOVA2): Oils, fats, table sugars, and salt.
Processed foods (NOVA3): Mainly items with a minimal number of ingredients without additives, like simple canned foods, some breads, and cheese.
Ultra-processed foods (NOVA4): The largest class that captures multiple types of breads, cereals, sauces, spreads, hamburgers, carbonated drinks, hot dogs, and pizzas.

The NOVA classification does not offer the degrees of processing for foods, hence all food in the ultra-processed NOVA4 class are considered equally ultra-processed. Consequently, 60% of the global, 73% of the USA, and 80% of the South Africa food supply is classified ultra-processed [1][13][14][15].

Relevant Research Papers

[*] Our GitHub Repository

[1] GroceryDB: Prevalence of Processed Food in Grocery Stores. [medRxiv, 2022]

[2] Machine Learning Prediction of Food Processing. [medRxiv, 2021]

References

[3] Consumption of ultra-processed foods and cancer risk: results from NutriNet-Santé prospective cohort.

[4] Prospective association between ultra-processed food consumption and incident depressive symptoms in the French NutriNet-Santé cohort.

[5] Association between ultraprocessed food intake and cardiovascular health in US adults: a cross-sectional analysis of the NHANES 2011–2016.

[6] Ultra-processed food consumption and type 2 diabetes incidence: A prospective cohort study.

[7] Ultra-Processed Diets Cause Excess Calorie Intake and Weight Gain: An Inpatient Randomized Controlled Trial of Ad Libitum Food Intake.

[8] Association between dietary contribution of ultra-processed foods and urinary concentrations of phthalates and bisphenol in a nationally representative sample of the US population aged 6 years and older.

[9] Processed food—an experiment that failed.

[10] Profits and pandemics: prevention of harmful effects of tobacco, alcohol, and ultra-processed food and drink industries.

[11] Ultra-processed foods: what they are and how to identify them.

[12] The UN Decade of Nutrition, the NOVA food classification and the trouble with ultra-processing.

[13] Global trends in ultraprocessed food and drink product sales and their association with adult body mass index trajectories.

[14] The Healthfulness of the US Packaged Food and Beverage Supply: A Cross-Sectional Study.

[15] A Fit-for-Purpose Nutrient Profiling Model to Underpin Food and Nutrition Policies in South Africa.

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